Wheat · Origin deep dive
US HRW 11% pro, FOB US Gulf
Hard red winter — harvest 78% complete
Texas Gulf (Galveston, Corpus) and NOLA elevators, railed from the southern Plains.
Hard red winter 11% protein — the quality reference for bread wheat trade.
Panamax to Asia, Supramax to Latin America; rail basis from Kansas sets FOB economics.
Mexico, Japan, Nigeria and Latin American millers wanting protein consistency.
Harvest pressure Jun-Aug; protein scales set premiums as the crop grades out.
Southern Plains drought cycles, protein shortfalls, and freight competition from cheaper origins.
The global price setter — floating export tax keeps offers lowest
Novorossiysk deep-water berths plus Azov shallow-water feeder ports.
Russian 12.5% protein milling wheat — high spec at the world's lowest offer.
Handysize from Azov, Panamax from Novo; floating export tax recalculated weekly.
Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh — the biggest tender markets.
Jul-Dec new-crop program dominates world trade; winter storms slow Azov flows.
Export-tax formula changes, quota announcements, and escalation around Black Sea shipping.
Deepest discount — war-risk premium on every fixture
Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi under the corridor regime.
Ukrainian 11.5% milling wheat; feed-wheat share rises in wet harvest years.
War-risk premium on hull and cargo insurance built into every fixture — the discount's core.
EU mills, Egypt private trade, and Asian feed buyers when the discount is deep enough.
Jul-Nov post-harvest push; corridor reliability determines how much ships.
Security incidents, insurance market capacity, and harvest-area loss.
Competes with Black Sea into Maghreb — loses on price, wins on reliability
Rouen's Seine terminals — Europe's largest wheat export hub.
French 11% milling wheat, superb falling numbers in good years.
Handymax down the Seine; short leg to Maghreb keeps freight minimal.
Algeria (OAIC tenders), Morocco and West Africa — reliability buyers.
Aug-Jan program after EU harvest; spring is residual.
EU crop weather, Black Sea price competition, and Algerian tender politics.
Freight advantage to SE Asia supports a small premium
Kwinana, Albany and Esperance CBH terminals in Western Australia.
Australian Premium White 10.5% — clean, dry, white-grain spec Asian millers prefer.
Panamax/Handymax with the shortest freight leg to SE Asia of any major exporter.
Indonesia (world's #1 importer), Vietnam, Philippines and Japan.
Dec-May post-harvest program; the counter-cycle to Northern Hemisphere origins.
WA rainfall variability, La Niña/El Niño swings, and Chinese buying surges.
Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Harvest pressure fading into August; US stays uncompetitive vs Black Sea until Russian offers firm — watch the Novo spread.
Outlook: Big crop plus floating export tax keeps Russia the price floor for world wheat. New-crop offers pressure every tender into Q4.
Outlook: Southern-hemisphere counter-season: Nov-Dec harvest supplies Asia when northern crops are sold. La Niña watch is the swing factor.