Wheat
Origin markets
Origin spread 37.00 /tBenchmark: US HRW 11% pro, FOB US Gulf. The same tonne prices differently by origin — freight, quality, sanctions and policy set the differential.
| Origin | Basis | Price | vs benchmark | Market note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🇺🇸 US Gulf HRW USA · quality reference | FOB USG | 245.00 | Benchmark | Hard red winter — harvest 78% complete |
🇷🇺 Novorossiysk Russia · world #1 exporter | FOB Novo 12.5% | 217.00 | -28.00 (-11.4%)widening | The global price setter — floating export tax keeps offers lowest |
🇺🇦 Odesa Ukraine · corridor flows | FOB Odesa 11.5% | 212.00 | -33.00 (-13.5%)stable | Deepest discount — war-risk premium on every fixture |
🇫🇷 Rouen France · EU reference | FOB Rouen 11% | 233.00 | -12.00 (-4.9%)narrowing | Competes with Black Sea into Maghreb — loses on price, wins on reliability |
🇦🇺 Kwinana APW Australia · Asia-facing | FOB Kwinana | 249.00 | +4.000 (+1.6%)stable | Freight advantage to SE Asia supports a small premium |
Differentials are indicative desk assessments over the live benchmark — 90-day spread trend shown per origin.
Track physical flows on the live vessel map →Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Harvest pressure fading into August; US stays uncompetitive vs Black Sea until Russian offers firm — watch the Novo spread.
Outlook: Big crop plus floating export tax keeps Russia the price floor for world wheat. New-crop offers pressure every tender into Q4.
Outlook: Southern-hemisphere counter-season: Nov-Dec harvest supplies Asia when northern crops are sold. La Niña watch is the swing factor.
6-month range
Annualised volatility 10%Forward curve
Indicative term structure · Backwardation
In other units
Converted from 245.00 USD/t · indicative FX
About Wheat
Wheat is traded in the agriculture segment, with price discovery referenced against CBOT. The chart above shows the trailing 6-month indicative price path. Physical parcels of Wheat can be sourced or placed through the Off Market desk, listed openly on the Marketplace, or intermediated by a specialist broker.
- Milling (bread & flour)
- Animal feed
- Starch & gluten