Wheat
Origin markets
Benchmark: CBOT/CME wheat, USc/bu. The same tonne prices differently by origin — freight, quality, sanctions and policy set the differential. Deep dive →
| Origin | Basis | Market note |
|---|---|---|
🇺🇸 US Gulf HRW USA · quality reference | FOB USGBenchmark | Hard red winter — harvest 78% complete |
🇷🇺 Novorossiysk Russia · world #1 exporter | FOB Novo 12.5% | The global price setter — floating export tax keeps offers lowest |
🇺🇦 Odesa Ukraine · corridor flows | FOB Odesa 11.5% | Deepest discount — war-risk premium on every fixture |
🇫🇷 Rouen France · EU reference | FOB Rouen 11% | Competes with Black Sea into Maghreb — loses on price, wins on reliability |
🇦🇺 Kwinana APW Australia · Asia-facing | FOB Kwinana | Freight advantage to SE Asia supports a small premium |
Origin notes are qualitative context. Dollar differentials are not shown, because no public differential series is attached.
Track physical flows on the live vessel map →Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Harvest pressure fading into August; US stays uncompetitive vs Black Sea until Russian offers firm — watch the Novo spread.
Outlook: Big crop plus floating export tax keeps Russia the price floor for world wheat. New-crop offers pressure every tender into Q4.
Outlook: Southern-hemisphere counter-season: Nov-Dec harvest supplies Asia when northern crops are sold. La Niña watch is the swing factor.
6-month range
Annualised volatility 21%In other units
Converted from 347.00 USD/t · indicative FX
About Wheat
Wheat is traded in the agriculture segment. The series on this page is the named public source, not a live feed. Physical parcels of Wheat can be sourced or placed through the Off Market desk, listed openly on the Marketplace, or intermediated by a specialist broker.
- Milling (bread & flour)
- Animal feed
- Starch & gluten