Wheat
Origin markets
Origin spread 37.00 USD/tBenchmark: US HRW 11% pro, FOB US Gulf. The same tonne prices differently by origin — freight, quality, sanctions and policy set the differential. Deep dive →
| Origin | Basis | Price | vs benchmark | Market note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🇺🇸 US Gulf HRW USA · quality reference | FOB USG | 245.00 | Benchmark | Hard red winter — harvest 78% complete |
🇷🇺 Novorossiysk Russia · world #1 exporter | FOB Novo 12.5% | 217.00 | -28.00 (-11.4%)widening | The global price setter — floating export tax keeps offers lowest |
🇺🇦 Odesa Ukraine · corridor flows | FOB Odesa 11.5% | 212.00 | -33.00 (-13.5%)stable | Deepest discount — war-risk premium on every fixture |
🇫🇷 Rouen France · EU reference | FOB Rouen 11% | 233.00 | -12.00 (-4.9%)narrowing | Competes with Black Sea into Maghreb — loses on price, wins on reliability |
🇦🇺 Kwinana APW Australia · Asia-facing | FOB Kwinana | 249.00 | +4.000 (+1.6%)stable | Freight advantage to SE Asia supports a small premium |
Differentials are indicative desk assessments over the live benchmark — 90-day spread trend shown per origin.
Track physical flows on the live vessel map →Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Harvest pressure fading into August; US stays uncompetitive vs Black Sea until Russian offers firm — watch the Novo spread.
Outlook: Big crop plus floating export tax keeps Russia the price floor for world wheat. New-crop offers pressure every tender into Q4.
Outlook: Southern-hemisphere counter-season: Nov-Dec harvest supplies Asia when northern crops are sold. La Niña watch is the swing factor.
6-month range
Annualised volatility 10%Forward curve
Indicative term structure · Backwardation
In other units
Converted from 245.00 USD/t · indicative FX
About Wheat
Wheat is traded in the agriculture segment, with price discovery referenced against CBOT. The chart above shows the trailing indicative price path. Physical parcels of Wheat can be sourced or placed through the Off Market desk, listed openly on the Marketplace, or intermediated by a specialist broker.
- Milling (bread & flour)
- Animal feed
- Starch & gluten