Sugar #11 · Origin deep dive

Santos sugar terminals (Rumo, Copersucar) railed from Centre-South mills.

VHP raws 99.3 pol — the #11 contract's physical backbone.

Panamax/Supramax stems; port shares capacity with grains at peak — lineups build.

Asian and Middle Eastern refineries; Indonesia and Algeria tender regularly.

Centre-South crush Apr-Nov floods the market; intercrop (Dec-Mar) tightens it.

Crush-mix swings between ethanol and sugar, frosts, and port congestion.

Mundra and Kandla refineries and raw export berths.

Indian raws and whites; quality adequate, availability entirely policy-determined.

Short legs to Middle East and East Africa when exports flow.

Sri Lanka, East Africa, Middle East — nearby markets when Delhi permits.

Oct-Apr crush; export decisions typically announced mid-season.

Export-ban/quota policy is the differential — ethanol diversion tightens it further.

Laem Chabang and Bangkok sugar terminals.

Hi-pol raws (99.5+) commanding a quality premium into premium Asian refineries.

Short freight legs to Indonesia, Japan and Korea — Asia's quality supplier.

Indonesian refineries (the anchor), Japanese and Korean refiners.

Dec-Apr crush; drought years crater the crop and the premium spikes.

Cane-payment politics, drought cycles, and cassava-switching by farmers.

Black Sea whites loading from Ukrainian and EU refineries.

White refined 45 ICUMSA — the whites-over-raws premium is a refining-margin proxy.

Handysize whites parcels; container flows supplement.

Mediterranean and Middle Eastern destinations buying refined direct.

Follows EU beet campaign (Sep-Jan) and refinery maintenance windows.

EU beet crop swings, energy costs in refining, and corridor logistics.