Soybean Oil · Origin deep dive
Soybean oil, FOB US Gulf (CBOT-linked)
CBOT-linked; renewable-diesel demand
NOLA-area terminals load crude degummed soyoil from Midwest crushers via barge and rail tankage.
CBOT-spec crude degummed soybean oil, with export availability residual to a domestic renewable diesel market that devours supply.
Tanker parcels from Gulf terminals; exports shrink whenever domestic RD margins bid oil away from the export market.
India, Morocco, Colombia and the Dominican Republic buy when US oil prices into world parity, which is intermittent.
Crush peaks post-harvest, but 45Z credit values and RD run rates now set exportable surplus more than crop timing.
US biofuel policy (RVOs, 45Z rules on feedstock origin), palm-soy spread, and CBOT oil-share swings dominate the basis.
World's top soyoil exporter
San Lorenzo and General Lagos terminals on the Parana load the world's largest soyoil export flow.
Argentine crude degummed soyoil is the world export standard, with FFA and moisture specs per FOSFA-style contracts.
Draft-limited tanker parcels from Up River, with export volume hostage to crush pace and biodiesel blending swings.
India is the anchor buyer, with Bangladesh, Peru and Morocco taking parcels; China buys beans, not oil.
Export peak follows the April-May harvest through the third quarter, with farmer selling and FX schemes modulating flow.
Export-tax differentials and peso policy, drought crop losses, domestic biodiesel mandate changes, and Parana draft restrictions.
Domestic biodiesel mandate competes for oil
Paranagua and Rio Grande load soyoil parcels left over after the domestic biodiesel programme takes its share.
Crude degummed soyoil of standard export spec, with exportable surplus squeezed by rising mandated biodiesel blends.
Tanker parcels from southern ports; the B15-and-rising blend mandate makes Brazil a shrinking, price-inelastic exporter.
India takes most Brazilian oil, with China and Bangladesh occasional; domestic biodiesel producers are the real marginal buyer.
Harvest-driven crush peaks March-July, but mandate step-ups matter more than season for exportable volume.
Biodiesel blend-mandate increases absorbing surplus, crush margin swings, real FX moves and competition from Argentine offers.
Delivered premium
Rotterdam tank terminals discharge soyoil parcels into the ARA vegoil complex alongside rape, sun and palm oils.
CIF Rotterdam crude degummed soyoil trades as the EU reference, pricing against rapeseed oil for food and energy use.
South American tanker parcels into ARA tankage with barge distribution; a delivered premium over FOB origins plus freight.
EU refiners, food processors and biodiesel producers switch between soy, rape and palm on relative price and policy.
Demand steady year-round; the premium tracks South American harvest pressure and EU rapeseed crop outcomes.
EUDR soy compliance, EU biofuel feedstock rules, rapeseed crop size setting substitution, and import-parity freight volatility.