Soybeans · Origin deep dive
CBOT-linked, FOB US Gulf export basis
Reference; new-crop export window opens Q4
NOLA export elevators on the lower Mississippi, fed by barge from the Midwest belt.
US #2 yellow soybeans, ~34.5% protein basis, uniform elevator blending.
Panamax and Supramax stems; barge freight on the river system is the swing cost.
China takes the marginal cargo; Mexico, Egypt and EU crushers anchor the program.
Export window peaks Q4-Q1 after US harvest, then hands off to Brazil by late Q1.
US-China trade policy, Mississippi water levels, and August pod-fill weather.
Record-harvest pressure — export program at peak undercuts US Gulf
Paranaguá's export corridor plus Santos — truck and rail from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Brazilian beans, slightly higher oil content than US; moisture managed at port blends.
Panamax queues stretch during peak program; lineups of 40+ vessels are routine in March.
China takes two-thirds of the program; EU crushers buy certified-deforestation-free lots.
Harvest Feb-May floods the port through mid-year — the seasonal undercut of US Gulf.
Port congestion, trucker strikes, BRL swings, and safrinha logistics competition for rail.
Crush-margin softness plus FX export incentives
Rosario/San Lorenzo terminal cluster on the Paraná — the world's crush capital.
Mostly exported as meal and oil; bean exports are the residual after domestic crush.
Draft-limited Handymax/Panamax load partial and top off at deep-water Bahía Blanca.
Meal to SE Asia and EU feed mills; beans opportunistically to China when crush margins sag.
April-July post-harvest peak; Paraná river levels set effective cargo sizes.
Export-tax policy, FX regime changes, low-water drafts, and crush-margin swings.
Delivered basis — freight plus premium demand; origin switches seasonally
Rizhao, Zhanjiang and Nantong crush plants — the world's largest import demand node.
CFR basis blending Brazilian and US material by season; protein premiums when supplies tighten.
The differential is origin FOB plus the Pacific or Cape leg — freight moves the CFR spread.
State (COFCO, Sinograin) and private crushers running hog-feed demand programs.
Origin switches seasonally — Brazil Feb-Sep, US Gulf Oct-Jan — with arbitrage windows between.
Tariff policy, hog-herd cycles, state reserve auctions, and crush-margin compressions.
Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Weather premium builds through August pod-fill; export window opens Q4 when US Gulf takes the flow back from Brazil. Watch China bookings and the USD.
Outlook: Export program past peak but FOB Paranaguá stays discounted to US Gulf into Q3, then the spread narrows as stocks draw and planting begins in September.
Outlook: Meal and oil exporter first — bean exports hinge on crush margins and export-tax policy. FX incentives keep Up River offers aggressive.