Neodymium (NdPr) · Origin deep dive
NdPr oxide, FOB China
China sets the magnet-rare-earth price
Separated oxide from Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Jiangxi containerizes through Tianjin and Shanghai under state-supervised export channels.
Neodymium-praseodymium oxide at 99.5% minimum purity, the magnet-feed reference from which metal and alloy prices derive.
Production runs under MIIT quota allocations to the two state groups; exports of controlled rare earths now require licences.
Chinese magnet makers like JL MAG and Zhong Ke San Huan, with ex-China magnet plants buying at the margin.
Cadence is policy-driven: semiannual production-quota releases and Northern Rare Earth's monthly listed prices set the rhythm.
April 2025 export controls on heavy rare earths proved the chokepoint is usable; quota policy and Myanmar feed swings add volatility.
Domestic NdPr premium under price-floor support
Mountain Pass, California mines and separates on-site, trucking oxide domestically toward metal and magnet capacity in Fort Worth.
Separated NdPr oxide to magnet-grade specification, with the ambition of a fully domestic mine-to-magnet chain.
Ore-to-oxide integration on one site removes seaborne steps; DoD partnership underwrites metallization and magnet ramp-up.
Department of Defense offtake and price-floor support, General Motors magnet supply, and consumer-electronics deals anchor demand.
Effectively policy cadence rather than seasonality: appropriations, DoD milestones and qualification timelines drive volume steps.
Execution risk on metal and magnet scale-up, plus dependence on government price support if Chinese oxide prices stay depressed.
Lynas Malaysia — the non-China benchmark
Mt Weld concentrate ships from Fremantle to the Kuantan LAMP in Malaysia, with Kalgoorlie cracking added upstream.
NdPr oxide at magnet-grade purity, the reference product for non-China supply contracts and Japanese consumption.
A two-country chain: Australian mining and cracking, Malaysian separation, then containerized oxide to Japanese and Korean magnet makers.
Japanese magnet producers under JOGMEC-backed offtakes, plus Korean and Western magnet projects seeking qualified ex-China feed.
Quarterly contract pricing with Japanese buyers dominates; physical flow shows little weather-driven pattern.
Malaysian operating-licence and thorium-residue politics, ramp-up hiccups at Kalgoorlie, and margin squeeze whenever Chinese oxide prices sag.
Ionic-clay feed into Chinese separation
Ionic-clay leachate product trucks from Kachin State across the Yunnan border crossings into Chinese separation plants.
Mixed rare-earth carbonate exceptionally rich in dysprosium and terbium, the heavy-rare-earth feed China's magnet chain depends on.
Informal in-situ leach operations feed cross-border truck convoys; everything downstream, separation to metal, happens inside China.
Chinese separators in Jiangxi and Guangdong, ultimately serving high-temperature magnet grades for EV traction motors and defense.
The June-September monsoon slows leaching operations and softens cross-border truck volumes into Yunnan.
Kachin Independence Army control of mining areas since late 2024, border closures, and environmental crackdowns can cut heavy-RE feed abruptly.