Lead Β· Origin deep dive
LME cash lead, in-warehouse
Global reference
Warranted lead concentrates in Singapore, Port Klang and European sheds, the deliverable base of the global reference.
Refined pig lead, 99.97% minimum, in strapped 25-kilogram ingot bundles under registered LME brands.
Warrant trading with FOT load-out on cancellation; dense, low-value-per-tonne metal makes freight a big share of premiums.
Battery manufacturers and traders; consumers draw warrants when regional delivered premiums exceed shed metal plus freight.
Cancellations pick up ahead of the northern winter battery season when replacement demand tightens regional spot markets.
Spread squeezes on thin stocks, off-warrant shadows and secondary smelter economics govern the warrant discount.
Battery-recycling demand supports a delivered premium
Delivered Midwest basis supplied by secondary smelters β Clarios and East Penn recycling loops β since primary smelting ended in 2013.
Refined soft lead 99.97% plus antimonial alloys, nearly all recovered from recycled automotive batteries.
Truck and rail from secondary smelters to battery plants; import supplement pays duty and Gulf-coast freight when tight.
Lead-acid battery makers for automotive OEM and replacement markets, the overwhelming sink for North American units.
Cold snaps kill car batteries, so winter replacement demand plus summer heat failures give lead a genuine dual season.
Secondary smelter outages, scrap battery collection rates and tariff treatment of imports drive the delivered premium.
Duty-paid premium
In-warehouse Rotterdam and Antwerp basis, fed by regional smelters like Stolberg and Hoboken plus seaborne imports.
Duty-paid refined lead 99.97%, with low-alpha and battery-alloy specialties commanding upcharges over commodity ingot.
Barge and truck distribution from smelters and duty-paid sheds to battery plants across Germany, Poland and Iberia.
European battery makers and rolled-lead producers, buying on annual premiums against the duty-paid Rotterdam quote.
Winter battery replacement pulls hardest; premium contracting concentrates in the autumn negotiating round.
European smelter closures, energy costs, scrap availability and import duty policy set the duty-paid premium's range.
Recycled supply and export tax cap the price
Ex-works pricing off SMM around Henan, Anhui and Hunan smelter clusters, with minimal seaborne refined trade.
SHFE-deliverable 99.994% refined lead, with secondary smelters supplying roughly half of Chinese output.
Domestic truck flows from primary and recycling smelters to battery plants; refined exports are choked by export tax.
Chinese lead-acid battery giants serving e-bikes, autos and telecom backup power, the world's largest lead sink.
Battery output ramps into the autumn e-bike and auto replacement season and slumps through Lunar New Year shutdowns.
Scrap battery supply, environmental crackdowns on recyclers and the export-tax cap keep Chinese prices discounted to LME.
Concentrate payables under refined metal
Shipped from Townsville serving Cannington and Broken Hill and from Callao for Peruvian polymetallic mines.
Lead concentrates around 50-70% metal with high silver content; silver payables often carry the parcel's economics.
Bulk and bagged concentrate parcels move to custom smelters in China, Korea and Europe on TC-based terms.
Custom primary smelters β Korea Zinc, Nyrstar Port Pirie, Chinese plants β chasing silver credits as much as lead units.
Annual TC benchmark talks anchor the year; Andean shipping and mine sequencing create quarter-to-quarter parcel lumpiness.
Silver price swings, TC levels and mine disruptions in Peru and Australia move payable netbacks against refined lead.