Natural Gas (HH) · Origin deep dive
Henry Hub natural gas
The North American reference
Henry Hub at Erath, Louisiana interconnects over a dozen pipelines and anchors NYMEX delivery adjacent to Gulf LNG demand.
Pipeline-quality gas around 1030-1040 Btu per cubic foot, dry spec, the contractual reference for most US LNG offtake.
Pure pipeline hub with deep physical liquidity; proximity to Sabine, Plaquemines and Corpus LNG trains ties it to export demand.
LNG exporters are the structural marginal buyer, alongside Gulf industrials, power generators and utilities hedging on NYMEX.
Winter heating and summer cooling peaks bracket shoulder-season injection; storage trajectory versus five-year average steers the curve.
Freeze-off events cutting supply while demand spikes, LNG train outages backing gas up, associated-gas growth and storage congestion.
Delivered Asian LNG netback
Priced delivered ex-ship into Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China regas terminals such as Futtsu, Incheon and Yung-An.
DES cargoes around 3.4 TBtu on standard 174,000 cbm carriers, with GCV and delivery-window flexibility priced into assessments.
Spot and strip cargoes on modern two-stroke carriers; Panama Canal transit constraints push US cargoes via Suez or the Cape.
JERA, KOGAS, CPC, Japanese utilities and Chinese second-tier importers flex spot purchases against term supply.
Winter heating demand December-February and summer cooling spikes lift JKM; shoulder months sag when storage is comfortable.
JKM-TTF arb reversals rerouting Atlantic cargoes, Chinese price-sensitive demand elasticity, nuclear restarts in Japan and typhoon disruptions.
The European gas benchmark; LNG pull
The Dutch TTF is a virtual hub, with physical supply arriving through Gate, Zeebrugge, and German FSRU terminals plus Norwegian pipes.
Standardised hub gas in EUR/MWh; Europe's benchmark for pipeline, storage and LNG-indexed contracts since Russian supply collapsed.
LNG regas capacity and Norwegian pipeline flows replaced Russian transit; storage-mandate refill schedules dominate summer logistics.
European utilities, industrials and traders; Uniper, RWE and ENGIE-type portfolios balance LNG against storage and demand.
Winter draw versus EU storage-fill targets defines the year; cold snaps with low wind output produce the sharpest spikes.
LNG supply-wave absorption, residual Russian LNG sanction decisions, Norwegian maintenance, weather-driven demand and the JKM arb pulling cargoes away.
Takeaway-constrained basis discount
AECO/NIT is Alberta's storage-linked virtual hub on the Nova system, far inland from any export waterborne outlet.
Standard pipeline-spec dry gas priced in CAD per gigajoule, historically at a wide discount to Henry Hub.
Takeaway on TC Energy's NGTL system plus Coastal GasLink into LNG Canada, whose ramp-up is structurally tightening the basis.
LNG Canada's Shell-led consortium, Alberta oilsands and power demand, and US Midwest and Pacific Northwest buyers via export pipes.
Summer maintenance on NGTL routinely crushes AECO cash prices, while winter heating demand and storage draws firm the hub.
NGTL maintenance-season blowouts, LNG Canada ramp timing, storage capacity limits and rapid Montney supply growth outpacing takeaway.
Associated-gas glut can push it negative
Waha hub in West Texas aggregates Permian associated gas at the junction of Gulf-bound and westbound pipelines.
Pipeline-spec gas that is a byproduct of oil drilling, making supply insensitive to gas price and prone to negative prints.
Gulf Coast Express, Whistler, Permian Highway and Matterhorn move gas east to Gulf demand; flaring absorbs the residue.
Gulf Coast LNG exporters and Texas power demand via pipeline offtake, plus Mexican exports on Comanche Trail and Roadrunner.
Spring and autumn pipeline maintenance with soft demand drives the deepest negative pricing episodes at Waha.
Permian oil-drilling pace setting gas supply regardless of price, pipeline outages, new takeaway timing and ERCOT demand swings.