LNG (JKM) · Origin deep dive

Assessed delivered into Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Chinese regas terminals, from Sodegaura to Pyeongtaek and Yancheng.

Standard DES cargo on a 160,000-174,000 cbm carrier with typical GCV specs; the marker for Northeast Asian spot LNG.

Flexible-destination cargoes vetted for terminal compatibility; winter berth congestion and boil-off management shape delivered economics.

JERA, KOGAS, CPC, Tokyo Gas and Chinese tier-two buyers arbitrate spot JKM against term portfolios.

December-February heating and July-August cooling peaks lift the marker; shoulder seasons see cargoes diverted to Europe.

Chinese spot-demand elasticity, Japanese nuclear and renewables displacing LNG, cold-snap scrambles and the TTF spread flipping cargo flows.

Term supply loads at Ras Laffan's Qatari mega-trains, Australian projects like Gorgon and Gladstone, and other legacy plants.

Long-term SPAs priced at a percentage slope to Brent (low-to-mid 0.11-0.13 historically), often with destination and volume flexibilities.

Dedicated shipping on Q-Flex/Q-Max and project carriers; take-or-pay obligations move volume regardless of spot economics.

Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Indian and Southeast Asian utilities lock slopes for security while trading around flexibility.

Contract deliveries flatten seasonality, with downward-quantity-tolerance and diversion clauses providing the seasonal flex.

Brent-slope versus spot JKM divergence driving renegotiations and arbitrations, Qatari expansion resetting slopes, and DQT exercise waves.

European cargoes discharge at Gate, Montoir, South Hook and German FSRUs, with TTF the pricing sink for flexible Atlantic supply.

Hub-priced gas in EUR/MWh; DES Northwest Europe LNG trades at a small discount to TTF reflecting regas costs.

Europe acts as the market of last resort; the JKM-TTF spread net of freight and canal costs steers every flexible cargo.

European utilities and portfolio majors (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) absorb cargoes when Asia doesn't pay the freight differential.

European winter demand and storage-refill summers compete with Asian peaks for the same flexible cargoes.

Storage-fill regulation, sanction decisions on Russian LNG transshipment, freight-rate spikes collapsing the arb, and demand destruction in industry.

Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines load FOB volumes priced off Henry Hub.

Lean US shale-based LNG with lower GCV than Qatari or Australian rich cargoes, occasionally needing terminal compatibility checks.

HH-plus-liquefaction-fee tolling with destination-free FOB terms; Panama Canal slot scarcity decides Pacific versus Cape routing.

Portfolio players, European utilities and Asian buyers holding tolling capacity resell freely on the best netback.

Cargoes chase the stronger basin seasonally, Asia in deep winter and summer, Europe during storage refill and freight-soft shoulders.

Freeport-style train outages, cancellation economics if TTF and JKM fall to variable cost, Panama Canal draft restrictions and US permitting politics.