Graphite (Flake) · Origin deep dive

Heilongjiang and Shandong flake concentrates railed to Qingdao for containerized export, the reference loading basis for the assessment.

Natural flake graphite at 94-95% carbon, -100 mesh, the standard feedstock grade beneath spherical and refractory upgrades.

Container flows face Beijing's December 2023 dual-use licensing regime on high-purity and spherical material, adding lead time to exports.

Refractory makers, expandable-graphite producers and anode processors who purify and spheronize flake into battery feedstock.

Heilongjiang mines shut through the frozen November-March winter, so buyers stock ahead and prices firm into the restart.

Export-licence tightening on graphite, following the gallium-germanium precedent, plus environmental inspection campaigns that idle processing capacity.

Ships in containers from Shanghai and Ningbo, but only after clearing China's export-licence gate on battery-grade anode material.

Coated spherical graphite at 99.95% carbon in tight micron distributions, the finished natural-anode input for lithium-ion cells.

Purification, spheronization and coating concentrate in Heilongjiang, Shandong and Sichuan; each export shipment needs dual-use licence approval.

Anode majors BTR and Shanshan supply CATL, LG Energy Solution, Panasonic and the ex-China gigafactories seeking compliant feedstock.

Tracks quarterly cell-maker contract resets and year-end EV production surges more than any weather-driven mining calendar.

Licence delays weaponize the chokepoint, while cheap synthetic graphite and US FEOC sourcing rules reshape who can buy Chinese anode.

Syrah trucks concentrate roughly 260 kilometres from Balama to Pemba port in Cabo Delgado for containerized export.

Large-flake and fines concentrate at 94-98% carbon, with fines feeding Syrah's Vidalia active-anode plant in Louisiana.

Single road corridor to Pemba, then container liner services; Vidalia integration gives a rare ex-China mine-to-anode chain.

Vidalia and Western anode aspirants chasing IRA-compliant feedstock, alongside Chinese processors when the price arbitrage works.

The December-March cyclone and wet season disrupts the Balama-Pemba road and port operations on Mozambique's northern coast.

Cabo Delgado insurgency and the 2024-25 protest blockades that forced force majeure, plus Chinese flake pricing undercutting restart economics.

New projects around Lindi and the southeast truck concentrate to Mtwara or Dar es Salaam for container export.

Notably coarse, high-ratio jumbo and large-flake concentrates, prized for expandables and premium pricing over Chinese fine flake.

Short trucking legs to port by African standards, but projects like Lindi Jumbo and Epanko still scale from low bases.

Expandable-graphite and refractory customers in Europe and Asia, plus offtakes tied to ex-China anode qualification programs.

The March-May long rains soften unsealed haul roads and slow concentrate movement to the coast.

Government free-carried-interest and licensing terms, project financing fragility, and dependence on Chinese processing for battery-grade conversion.

Established east-coast producers ship flake through Toamasina, Madagascar's main container port, from mines like Sahamamy and Molo.

Consistent flake concentrate around 94-97% carbon across size fractions, a long-standing supplement to Chinese supply.

Short truck hauls to Toamasina keep the chain simple, though power reliability and port capacity constrain expansion plans.

European and Asian refractory and expandable buyers, with NextSource routing material toward battery-anode qualification in Mauritius and beyond.

The January-March cyclone season regularly batters the east coast, interrupting mining, roads and Toamasina port operations.

Cyclone damage, chronic infrastructure and power constraints, and price-taker exposure to Chinese flake benchmarks.