Gallium · Origin deep dive
Gallium (99.99%), FOB China
China restricted gallium exports in 2023
Metal from alumina-linked producers in Shandong, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia exports through Qingdao and Shanghai under licence.
4N crude gallium as standard, refined to 6N-7N for GaAs and GaN semiconductor epitaxy, with certificates per lot.
Small drummed containerized or air parcels, each requiring a MOFCOM dual-use export licence since the August 2023 controls took effect.
Compound-semiconductor wafer fabs, GaN power and RF device makers, and permanent-magnet alloy producers outside China.
No seasonal cycle; flow is dictated by licence approvals and end-use certifications, making cadence political rather than calendar-driven.
China's roughly 98% primary-supply share plus live export controls, including the December 2024 US-directed ban, create acute single-source exposure.
Ex-China units spiked as buyers scrambled
Availability centers on Rotterdam minor-metal warehouses and US trader stocks, with Neo's Stade site in Germany among few Western refiners.
Refined 6N-7N gallium for semiconductor use, often Chinese-origin metal upgraded and re-certified in Western refining loops.
Delivered lots from bonded warehouse stocks by secure courier or truck, with availability rationed when Chinese licence flow tightens.
European and US GaAs and GaN fabs, defense electronics suppliers, and gas users needing guaranteed non-embargoed units.
Purely stock-cycle driven, with panic restocking following each Chinese control announcement and quiet spot markets in between.
The ex-China premium rests on thin inventories; a full Chinese licensing freeze would exhaust Western stocks in months.
Recycling and new alumina-linked capacity
Emerging supply points include Rio Tinto's Quebec alumina circuit, Greek and Australian alumina-linked projects, and expanding scrap-recycling plants.
Primary crude 4N from Bayer-liquor extraction plus recycled gallium from GaAs scrap, both needing upgrading to semiconductor 6N.
Pilot-scale containerized parcels under qualification with fabs, with volumes contracted forward under government-backed supply-security programs.
Western semiconductor fabs and defense primes seeking qualified non-Chinese supply, often supported by CHIPS-style strategic funding.
Project-ramp timelines rather than seasons drive availability, with qualification cycles at fabs setting when new units become bankable.
New capacity is subscale and cost-exposed; a Chinese licensing thaw could crash prices below the economics of every greenfield project.