Dysprosium · Origin deep dive
Dysprosium oxide, FOB China
China effectively monopolises heavy rare earths; export-controlled
Oxide from southern ionic-clay separation hubs in Jiangxi and Guangdong exports through Guangzhou and Shanghai under strict licence.
Dysprosium oxide at 99.5% minimum, destined for Dy-Fe alloy and grain-boundary-diffusion feed in high-coercivity NdFeB magnets.
Small drummed containerized lots each needing MOFCOM approval under the April 2025 heavy-rare-earth export-control regime.
NdFeB magnet makers serving EV traction motors, wind turbines and defense actuators, mostly inside China with licensed exports beyond.
No natural season; quota announcements and licence-processing queues set the trading rhythm more than end-use demand timing.
China's April 2025 export controls on dysprosium plus its heavy-RE separation monopoly make supply a direct geopolitical instrument.
Nascent non-China heavy-RE separation premium
Lynas's Kuantan plant in Malaysia and emerging Texas separation capacity anchor the nascent non-China heavy-RE supply chain.
Separated Dy oxide from Lynas's 2025-commissioned heavy-RE circuit, qualified lot-by-lot by Western magnet and defense buyers.
Delivered small parcels under long-term strategic contracts, with US DoD-backed offtakes underwriting volumes before commercial scale.
Western magnet plants, defense primes, and EV makers building China-free magnet chains under government procurement cover.
Ramp-schedule driven rather than seasonal, with qualification milestones at magnet makers determining when volumes become real.
Output remains a sliver of Chinese capacity, and feedstock scarcity for heavy-RE-rich ore limits how fast the alternative can scale.
Ionic-clay feed into Chinese separators
Ionic-clay concentrates from Kachin State cross the Yunnan land border to Chinese separators, an overland trade with no seaport leg.
Mixed heavy-RE carbonate rich in dysprosium and terbium, the dominant raw feed for China's heavy-rare-earth separation industry.
Truck convoys through border crossings like Chipwi, with flows episodically halted by Kachin Independence Army control of mining areas.
Chinese separation plants in Jiangxi and Sichuan that convert Myanmar carbonate into oxide for the magnet chain.
Monsoon-season mining and road disruption cuts wet-months flow, layered over conflict-driven stoppages at the border.
KIA seizure of the mining belt since 2024 shows a single unstable conflict zone underpins the entire global dysprosium feed.