Copper · Origin deep dive

LME-registered sheds across Rotterdam, Kaohsiung, Port Klang and Gwangyang.

Grade A cathode, 99.9935% Cu min — the contract's deliverable spec.

In-warehouse title transfer; physical premiums quoted over LME cash by region.

The terminal market: producers hedging, funds positioning, merchants arbitraging premiums.

Stock cycles follow the arb — metal migrates toward whichever region pays the premium.

Warehouse-queue games, financing-rate shifts, and stock draw-downs squeezing spreads.

Shanghai and Guangdong bonded warehouses — the import arbitrage's staging area.

Grade A cathode plus ER copper; Yangshan premium is the import-appetite gauge.

Bonded storage lets metal wait duty-unpaid for the arb window to open.

Chinese fabricators and traders importing when SHFE-LME arb plus premium clears.

Restocking ahead of Q2 and Q4 fabrication peaks lifts the premium.

SHFE-LME arb closures, credit tightening, and State Reserve releases.

CME warehouses in the US Midwest and Gulf — the tariff-era dislocation.

Grade 1 cathode, effectively same metal as LME — the spread is pure policy.

Metal pulled across the Atlantic into COMEX delivery to capture the tariff premium.

US fabricators and OEMs paying the Section-232-era import premium.

None — this spread trades on tariff policy, not seasons.

Tariff changes collapsing the arb overnight; stranded-inventory risk for late arrivals.

Puerto Angamos and San Antonio concentrate berths serving Escondida and the central mines.

25-30% Cu concentrates; payable metal terms net of TC/RCs at record-low levels.

Handysize concentrate parcels in sealed holds to Asian smelters.

Chinese, Japanese and Korean smelters bidding TC/RCs down to win tonnes.

Annual benchmark TC/RC negotiations each Q4 reset the year's economics.

Smelter overcapacity keeping TC/RCs pinned, mine disruptions, and Chilean royalty policy.