Corn · Origin deep dive
CBOT-linked, FOB US Gulf export basis
Reference; new crop at silking — weather market
NOLA elevator row, barge-fed from Illinois and Iowa river terminals.
US #2 yellow corn, low-moisture uniform lots preferred by quality-sensitive buyers.
Panamax stems to Asia via Panama Canal; Supramax to Latin America.
Mexico is the anchor program; Japan, Korea and Colombia round out the book.
New-crop export surge Oct-Dec; weather market peaks in July silking.
Corn Belt weather, Mississippi logistics, Mexican policy and Panama Canal transit slots.
Safrinha harvest flowing to port — seasonal undercut of US Gulf
Santos and Paranaguá corn corridors, railed from Mato Grosso's safrinha belt.
Second-crop (safrinha) corn — comparable spec to US, slightly higher foreign matter allowance.
Shares export capacity with sugar and beans — rail slot competition is real.
China (post-2022 approval), Iran, Egypt, and SE Asian feed importers.
Safrinha harvest floods ports Jul-Nov — precisely when this discount is widest.
Safrinha planting-window weather, logistics congestion, and China approval-list politics.
FX incentives; logistics discount vs Gulf
Paraná river terminals from Rosario down to San Lorenzo.
Argentine corn, flint-influenced hardness some buyers pay up for (polenta, milling).
Draft-limited river load plus Bahía Blanca top-offs, mirroring the bean flow.
Vietnam, Algeria, Peru and Saudi feed buyers on price; specialty flint to Italy.
March-August main flow after harvest; late-year program depends on stocks.
Export-tax and FX policy, river drafts, and leafhopper/disease scares.
War-risk insurance and corridor logistics priced in
Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk under the maritime corridor regime.
Ukrainian corn, drying costs post-harvest reflected in basis; spec comparable to EU feed grade.
War-risk insurance on every fixture; smaller stems and convoy-style scheduling.
EU feed compounders, Egypt's GASC-adjacent private trade, China when priced in.
Oct-Feb post-harvest surge; corridor throughput caps the program's ceiling.
Corridor security, insurance capacity, port-strike damage, and harvest-area contraction.
Delivered basis — freight over Gulf; quality-tested cargoes
Japanese (Kashima, Chiba) and Korean (Incheon, Ulsan) feed-mill berths.
Quality-tested cargoes with strict mycotoxin and GMO documentation — the premium is earned.
CFR basis over the Pacific; Panamax freight and canal transit set the spread over Gulf.
Japanese trading houses and Korean feed groups (NOFI, MFG) on tender programs.
Tenders year-round; buying accelerates when freight dips or US harvest pressure peaks.
Freight-rate spikes, currency swings, and origin-switching to Brazil or Black Sea.
Harvest, yield & outlook
Crop calendars, current-season yields and the desk read per origin — the supply side behind the origin differentials.
Outlook: Pollination weather over the next three weeks decides the crop. Ethanol grind steady; export pace hinges on Brazil's safrinha overhang clearing.
Outlook: Second-crop corn hitting ports now — FOB Santos undercuts US Gulf through Q3, then the window closes as US harvest arrives.
Outlook: Acreage and inputs constrained; every escalation headline reprices the FOB discount before the physical does.