Coking Coal · Origin deep dive
Premium hard coking coal, FOB Australia
Peak coke strength — the quality benchmark
Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point — the premium hard coking coal complex.
Peak Downs/Saraji-class PHCC: CSR 71+, low ash — the coke-strength benchmark.
Panamax/Capesize; Goonyella rail system performance is the supply-side variable.
Indian and Japanese steelmakers on quarterly index; Chinese mills when politics allow.
Q1 cyclone season is the recurring supply shock that spikes the benchmark.
Cyclones, longwall moves at key mines, and India's blast-furnace build-out pace.
High-vol grades; Atlantic freight advantage to Europe
Hampton Roads (Lambert's Point, DTA) railed from Appalachian low-vol and high-vol mines.
High-vol A/B coking coals — different coke-oven role than Australian PHCC.
Panamax across the short Atlantic leg to Europe; swing supplier economics.
European blast furnaces, Brazilian mills, and Asian buyers in tight markets.
Swing tonnage — volumes expand when the seaborne price clears US cash costs.
Mine cost inflation, rail service, and demand loss as EU steel decarbonizes.
Landlocked — truck/rail to China at a structural discount
Ganqimaodu/Gashuunsukhait border crossings — truck and rail, no seaport.
Tavan Tolgoi hard coking coal, washed and raw grades — quality rivals Queensland.
Landlocked: truck queues and the new rail link to China set the discount, not quality.
Chinese coke plants and mills in Inner Mongolia and the northeast — a China-only trade.
Winter border slowdowns; Chinese steel-margin cycles drive offtake.
Border-policy friction, Mongolian export-tax changes, and China's Australia stance shifting.