Bauxite · Origin deep dive
Guinea 45% Al2O3, CIF China
Reference grade and flow
Kamsar and Dapilon river ports transshipping to Capesize anchorages offshore.
Boké-region trihydrate bauxite, 45% Al2O3, low reactive silica — China's refinery diet.
Barge-to-anchorage transshipment then the long Cape leg to Shandong.
Chinese alumina refineries — Guinea supplies ~70% of China's imports.
Wet season (Jun-Oct) slows river logistics; Q4-Q1 shipping peaks.
Political instability, mining-code changes, fuel logistics, and freight-rate spikes.
FOB basis — shorter freight, lower alumina content
Weipa and Amrun terminals on Cape York — Rio Tinto's integrated system.
Lower-temperature-digestion gibbsite ore; lower alumina than Guinea but ultra-reliable.
Panamax/post-Panamax on a much shorter leg to China than Guinea — the FOB discount reflects it.
Chinese refineries diversifying away from single-origin Guinea risk; domestic Gladstone use.
Q1 cyclone exposure on Cape York; otherwise metronomic.
Cyclones and Chinese diversification appetite — a stability premium in disguise.
Export-ban risk priced as a discount
Bintan island anchorages near Singapore, barge-loaded.
Indonesian trihydrate ore, moderate grade with laterite overburden variability.
Short Supramax leg to South China — the freight advantage of the archipelago.
Southern Chinese refineries balancing Guinea exposure.
Monsoon barge interruptions Dec-Feb.
Indonesian export-ban policy — the discount is a standing bet on Jakarta's next move.