Brent Crude · Origin deep dive
Dated Brent, North Sea loading
The reference two-thirds of world crude prices against
Sullom Voe, Hound Point and Norwegian terminals — the Dated basket's load points.
Brent-Forties-Oseberg-Ekofisk-Troll plus WTI Midland — light sweet basket.
Aframax shuttle and Suezmax liftings; five-grade basket keeps physical liquidity honest.
NW European refiners and the trading houses that make the Dated window.
North Sea maintenance season (May-Jun) trims loadings annually.
Field decline requiring basket additions, and benchmark-reform debates.
Sanctions discount — shadow-fleet freight and cap compliance
Primorsk and Ust-Luga (Baltic), Novorossiysk (Black Sea).
Medium sour 31 API, 1.4% S — quality unchanged, the discount is sanctions architecture.
Shadow-fleet Aframax on long hauls to India and China; insurance outside G7 markets.
Indian refiners (the marginal barrel), Chinese independents, Turkish refiners.
Baltic ice class needs in deep winter; otherwise policy-driven.
Price-cap enforcement waves, shadow-fleet detentions, and buyer-side compliance shifts.
US barrels deliverable into Dated — arb anchors the spread
Corpus Christi and Houston export terminals fed by Permian pipelines.
Light sweet 40+ API, low sulphur — deliverable into the Dated basket since 2023.
Aframax/Suezmax across the Atlantic; VLCC via Corpus reverse-lightering.
European refiners short light sweet; the arb anchors Brent-WTI.
US refinery turnaround seasons free barrels for export in spring and fall.
Permian production plateau, export-terminal capacity, and freight-rate swings.
East-of-Suez sour reference; Brent-Dubai EFS gauges the arb
Fujairah and Omani terminals — the East-of-Suez sour marker.
Medium sour ~31 API — the quality Asia's refinery slate is built for.
VLCC economics east; partials via the Dubai window's convergence mechanism.
Asian refiners pricing term crude off Dubai swaps — the region's contract basis.
OPEC+ quota decisions dominate any seasonal pattern.
OPEC+ policy, Hormuz risk premia, and Brent-Dubai EFS swings rerouting arbs.
Gasoline-rich light sweet — premium when European refiners run hard
Bonny and Forcados terminals in the Niger Delta.
35 API light sweet, gasoline-rich yield — prized by simple refineries.
Suezmax to Europe; security escorts and pipeline losses are real load-factor risks.
European refiners (the gasoline pull), Indian refiners diversifying.
European summer gasoline season lifts the premium.
Delta pipeline sabotage, force majeure history, and Dangote refinery absorbing exports.